China to become net importer of primary aluminium in 2008 From World Aluminium Market

Shanghai, Jan 18 -- Helen Henton, Bulk commodity research department of Standard Chartered said, most bulk commodity are bullish, while part of base metals are facing the downward challenge, of which differential will be the key factor.

Sean Mulhearn, global manager of Derivatives Department of Standard Chartered said, commodity’s fluctuation will continue, which will affect industry integration and acquisition, assets acquisition and pin-off, new industry’s development and expanding, LNG and other private equity players.

Helen said, base metals will show a differential trend in 2008. Aluminum price will fall to 2280 dollars per tonne from 2550 dollars per tonne; while copper price down to 5100 dollars per ton; nickel and zinc price to 22000 dollars per ton and 2500 dollars per ton.

"On one side, supply is growing sharply; on the other side, inventory is decreasing."

She also notes that China is likely to become a net importer of aluminum, which will support global aluminium price efficiently. She expects China will import less copper and export more zinc, which means both metals price will continue its downward trend.

Helen said, " China is the biggest basemetal consumer, also the biggest producer. Any tiny change in plans of import and export will affect market greatly."